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"name": "Russia", "code": "RUS"}, {"id": 231, "name": "San Marino", "code": "SMR"}, {"id": 232, "name": "Sao Tome and Principe", "code": "STP"}, {"id": 90, "name": "Saudi Arabia", "code": "SAU"}, {"id": 89, "name": "Senegal", "code": "SEN"}, {"id": 88, "name": "Serbia", "code": "SRB"}, {"id": 87, "name": "Sierra Leone", "code": "SLE"}, {"id": 86, "name": "Singapore", "code": "SGP"}, {"id": 281, "name": "Sint Maarten (Dutch part)", "code": "SXM"}, {"id": 85, "name": "Slovakia", "code": "SVK"}, {"id": 83, "name": "Slovenia", "code": "SVN"}, {"id": 82, "name": "Somalia", "code": "SOM"}, {"id": 81, "name": "South Africa", "code": "ZAF"}, {"id": 127, "name": "South Korea", "code": "KOR"}, {"id": 258, "name": "South Sudan", "code": "SSD"}, {"id": 9, "name": "Spain", "code": "ESP"}, {"id": 141, "name": "Sri Lanka", "code": "LKA"}, {"id": 79, "name": "Sudan", "code": "SDN"}, {"id": 234, "name": "Suriname", "code": "SUR"}, {"id": 10, "name": "Sweden", "code": "SWE"}, {"id": 7, "name": "Switzerland", "code": "CHE"}, {"id": 77, "name": "Syria", "code": "SYR"}, {"id": 76, "name": "Tajikistan", "code": "TJK"}, {"id": 64, "name": "Tanzania", "code": "TZA"}, {"id": 75, "name": "Thailand", "code": "THA"}, {"id": 74, "name": "Togo", "code": "TGO"}, {"id": 71, "name": "Tunisia", "code": "TUN"}, {"id": 70, "name": "Turkey", "code": "TUR"}, {"id": 68, "name": "Uganda", "code": "UGA"}, {"id": 67, "name": "Ukraine", "code": "UKR"}, {"id": 72, "name": "United Arab Emirates", "code": "ARE"}, {"id": 1, "name": "United Kingdom", "code": "GBR"}, {"id": 13, "name": "United States", "code": "USA"}, {"id": 63, "name": "Uruguay", "code": "URY"}, {"id": 62, "name": "Uzbekistan", "code": "UZB"}, {"id": 238, "name": "Venezuela", "code": "VEN"}, {"id": 84, "name": "Vietnam", "code": "VNM"}, {"id": 61, "name": "Yemen", "code": "YEM"}, {"id": 60, "name": "Zambia", "code": "ZMB"}, {"id": 80, "name": "Zimbabwe", "code": "ZWE"}]}}, "descriptionShort": "Upper estimates of the true number of COVID-19 infections LSHTM model. It shows the bound of a 95% uncertainty interval.", "type": "float", "dataChecksum": "1033941324376500355", "metadataChecksum": "3296543860431501698", "datasetName": "COVID-19, infection model estimates", "updatePeriodDays": 365, "datasetVersion": "latest", "nonRedistributable": false, "display": {"name": "Upper", "unit": "estimated infections", "zeroDay": "2019-12-26", "yearIsDay": true, "numDecimalPlaces": 3}, "schemaVersion": 2, "presentation": {"titlePublic": "Daily new estimated COVID-19 infections (LSHTM, Upper estimate)", "topicTagsLinks": ["COVID-19"]}, "descriptionKey": ["LSHTM uses a delay-adjusted CFR comparison to estimate how many symptomatic infections go undetected, then adds an assumed 10-70% asymptomatic share to estimate total infections.", "A baseline CFR of 1.4% - derived from early data in China - underpins the model, potentially leading to overestimation or underestimation of infections in populations with different age structures.", "By assuming confirmed deaths reflect true deaths, the model may underestimate the actual health burden in places where fatalities are underreported or reported with delays.", "Retroactive revisions in death data can introduce discrepancies, affecting the model's calculations of under-ascertainment rates.", "While it highlights under-detection of infections, the model's accuracy depends heavily on its baseline CFR assumptions and the completeness of reported deaths data.", "More assumptions and limitations are discussed in [the full report](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/UnderReporting.pdf)."], "origins": [{"id": 1339, "title": "Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting", "description": "Estimate the percentage of symptomatic COVID-19 cases reported in different countries using case fatality ratio estimates based on data from the ECDC, correcting for delays between confirmation-and-death.", "producer": "London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine", "citationFull": "Russell, T. W., Hellewell, J., Abbott, S., Golding, N., Gibbs, H., Jarvis, C. I., van Zandvoort, K., CMMID COVID-19 working group, Flasche, S., Eggo, R. M., Edmunds, W. J., & Kucharski, A. J. (2020). Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting. BMC Medicine. Retrieved from https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html.", "attributionShort": "LSHTM", "urlMain": "https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html", "dateAccessed": "2020-08-27", "datePublished": "2020", "license": {"name": "CC BY 4.0"}}]}