{"id": 989111, "name": "Daily new estimated COVID-19 infections (Youyang Gu, Mean estimate)", "unit": "estimated infections", "createdAt": "2024-09-16T14:24:11.000Z", "updatedAt": "2025-02-14T15:15:20.000Z", "coverage": "", "timespan": "", "datasetId": 6721, "columnOrder": 0, "shortName": "yyg_infections__estimate_mean", "catalogPath": "grapher/covid/latest/infections_model/infections_model#yyg_infections__estimate_mean", "dimensions": {"years": {"values": [{"id": 53}, {"id": 54}, {"id": 55}, {"id": 56}, {"id": 57}, {"id": 58}, {"id": 59}, {"id": 60}, {"id": 61}, {"id": 62}, {"id": 63}, {"id": 64}, {"id": 65}, {"id": 66}, {"id": 67}, {"id": 68}, {"id": 69}, {"id": 70}, {"id": 71}, {"id": 72}, {"id": 73}, {"id": 74}, {"id": 75}, {"id": 76}, {"id": 77}, {"id": 78}, {"id": 79}, {"id": 80}, {"id": 81}, {"id": 82}, {"id": 83}, {"id": 84}, {"id": 85}, {"id": 86}, {"id": 87}, {"id": 88}, {"id": 89}, {"id": 90}, {"id": 91}, {"id": 92}, {"id": 93}, {"id": 94}, {"id": 95}, {"id": 96}, {"id": 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"code": "DOM"}, {"id": 201, "name": "Ecuador", "code": "ECU"}, {"id": 65, "name": "Egypt", "code": "EGY"}, {"id": 156, "name": "Estonia", "code": "EST"}, {"id": 155, "name": "Finland", "code": "FIN"}, {"id": 3, "name": "France", "code": "FRA"}, {"id": 6, "name": "Germany", "code": "DEU"}, {"id": 149, "name": "Greece", "code": "GRC"}, {"id": 139, "name": "Honduras", "code": "HND"}, {"id": 138, "name": "Hungary", "code": "HUN"}, {"id": 207, "name": "Iceland", "code": "ISL"}, {"id": 137, "name": "India", "code": "IND"}, {"id": 136, "name": "Indonesia", "code": "IDN"}, {"id": 135, "name": "Iran", "code": "IRN"}, {"id": 2, "name": "Ireland", "code": "IRL"}, {"id": 133, "name": "Israel", "code": "ISR"}, {"id": 8, "name": "Italy", "code": "ITA"}, {"id": 14, "name": "Japan", "code": "JPN"}, {"id": 208, "name": "Kuwait", "code": "KWT"}, {"id": 122, "name": "Latvia", "code": "LVA"}, {"id": 119, "name": "Lithuania", "code": "LTU"}, {"id": 210, "name": "Luxembourg", "code": "LUX"}, {"id": 116, "name": "Malaysia", "code": "MYS"}, {"id": 212, "name": "Malta", "code": "MLT"}, {"id": 113, "name": "Mexico", "code": "MEX"}, {"id": 111, "name": "Moldova", "code": "MDA"}, {"id": 110, "name": "Morocco", "code": "MAR"}, {"id": 5, "name": "Netherlands", "code": "NLD"}, {"id": 103, "name": "Nigeria", "code": "NGA"}, {"id": 102, "name": "Norway", "code": "NOR"}, {"id": 101, "name": "Pakistan", "code": "PAK"}, {"id": 100, "name": "Panama", "code": "PAN"}, {"id": 97, "name": "Peru", "code": "PER"}, {"id": 96, "name": "Philippines", "code": "PHL"}, {"id": 11, "name": "Poland", "code": "POL"}, {"id": 95, "name": "Portugal", "code": "PRT"}, {"id": 92, "name": "Romania", "code": "ROU"}, {"id": 12, "name": "Russia", "code": "RUS"}, {"id": 90, "name": "Saudi Arabia", "code": "SAU"}, {"id": 88, "name": "Serbia", "code": "SRB"}, {"id": 85, "name": "Slovakia", "code": "SVK"}, {"id": 83, "name": "Slovenia", "code": "SVN"}, {"id": 81, "name": "South Africa", "code": "ZAF"}, {"id": 127, "name": "South Korea", "code": "KOR"}, {"id": 9, "name": "Spain", "code": "ESP"}, {"id": 10, "name": "Sweden", "code": "SWE"}, {"id": 7, "name": "Switzerland", "code": "CHE"}, {"id": 70, "name": "Turkey", "code": "TUR"}, {"id": 67, "name": "Ukraine", "code": "UKR"}, {"id": 72, "name": "United Arab Emirates", "code": "ARE"}, {"id": 1, "name": "United Kingdom", "code": "GBR"}, {"id": 13, "name": "United States", "code": "USA"}]}}, "descriptionShort": "Mean estimates of the true number of COVID-19 infections Youyang Gu model.", "type": "int", "dataChecksum": "16549052774273599804", "metadataChecksum": "-7194266036715133021", "datasetName": "COVID-19, infection model estimates", "updatePeriodDays": 365, "datasetVersion": "latest", "nonRedistributable": false, "display": {"name": "Mean estimate", "unit": "estimated infections", "zeroDay": "2019-12-26", "yearIsDay": true, "numDecimalPlaces": 3}, "schemaVersion": 2, "presentation": {"titlePublic": "Daily new estimated COVID-19 infections (Youyang Gu, Mean estimate)", "topicTagsLinks": ["COVID-19"]}, "descriptionKey": ["The model combines a standard SEIR framework with a machine-learning layer that adjusts parameters to align with observed data, aiming for forecast accuracy.", "Using reported deaths and an estimated infection fatality rate (IFR) to back-calculate infections can introduce uncertainty, especially if actual deaths are underreported.", "The model assumes that IFR decreases over time (e.g., to 30% of its initial value) to reflect changing demographics of infection and improvements in treatment.", "Although designed primarily for the United States, the model also provides estimates for other countries, where it may have reduced accuracy due to differing data quality and health-system factors.", "Updates to the model ceased on 5 October 2020, so any emerging trends or subsequent changes in testing, transmission, or IFR are not reflected in its latest estimates.", "For a full list of assumptions and limitations see [the model \"About\" page](https://covid19-projections.com/about/#assumptions)."], "origins": [{"id": 1340, "title": "COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning", "description": "Comprehensive library of the recent updates but also all historical updates. If you are only interested in the last infections estimates made in March 2021, click here. See a list of all of our COVID-19 repositories below.", "producer": "Youyang Gu", "citationFull": "Russell, T. W., Hellewell, J., Abbott, S., Golding, N., Gibbs, H., Jarvis, C. I., van Zandvoort, K., CMMID COVID-19 working group, Flasche, S., Eggo, R. M., Edmunds, W. J., & Kucharski, A. J. (2020). Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting. BMC Medicine. Retrieved from https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html.", "urlMain": "https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections", "dateAccessed": "2020-10-06", "datePublished": "2020", "license": {"name": "CC BY 4.0"}}]}