{"id": 734420, "name": "Cumulative excess deaths per 100,000 people (central estimate)", "unit": "deaths per 100,000 people", "createdAt": "2023-06-13T10:48:42.000Z", "updatedAt": "2025-05-26T07:40:37.000Z", "coverage": "", "timespan": "", "datasetId": 6068, "columnOrder": 0, "shortName": "cumulative_estimated_daily_excess_deaths_per_100k", "catalogPath": "grapher/excess_mortality/latest/excess_mortality_economist/excess_mortality_economist#cumulative_estimated_daily_excess_deaths_per_100k", "type": "float", "grapherConfigIdETL": "0191c16a-91ab-7a1f-b25e-880e52ea58fd", "dataChecksum": "3791816111969933122", "metadataChecksum": "-4847475040002251512", "datasetName": "COVID-19, Excess Mortality", "datasetVersion": "latest", "nonRedistributable": false, "display": {"name": "Central estimate", "unit": "deaths per 100,000 people", "color": "#B13507", "zeroDay": "2020-01-01", "yearIsDay": true, "includeInTable": true, "numDecimalPlaces": 0}, "schemaVersion": 2, "presentation": {}, "descriptionKey": ["Data from The Economist estimating the number of excess deaths, from all causes, during the COVID-19 pandemic for 223 countries & regions. The Economist publishes new estimates each day. We update our charts with the latest available data each week.", "Excess deaths measure the difference between how many people died during the pandemic, from any cause, and how many deaths would have been expected had there been no pandemic.", "Many countries have not reported any all-cause mortality data during the pandemic, which means their entire data series is estimated. Other countries report data regularly, but it is not always up-to-date due to delays in reporting; for these, only recent weeks are estimated. These delays, as well as incomplete reporting coverage, mean the reported number of deaths might not count all deaths that occurred."], "dimensions": {"years": {"values": [{"id": 0}, {"id": 5}, {"id": 12}, {"id": 19}, {"id": 26}, {"id": 33}, {"id": 40}, {"id": 47}, {"id": 54}, {"id": 61}, {"id": 68}, {"id": 75}, {"id": 82}, {"id": 89}, {"id": 96}, {"id": 103}, {"id": 110}, {"id": 117}, {"id": 124}, {"id": 131}, {"id": 138}, {"id": 145}, {"id": 152}, {"id": 159}, {"id": 166}, {"id": 173}, {"id": 180}, {"id": 187}, {"id": 194}, {"id": 201}, {"id": 208}, {"id": 215}, {"id": 222}, {"id": 229}, {"id": 236}, {"id": 243}, {"id": 250}, {"id": 257}, {"id": 264}, {"id": 271}, {"id": 278}, {"id": 285}, {"id": 292}, {"id": 299}, {"id": 306}, {"id": 313}, {"id": 320}, {"id": 327}, {"id": 334}, {"id": 341}, {"id": 348}, {"id": 355}, {"id": 362}, {"id": 369}, {"id": 376}, {"id": 383}, {"id": 390}, {"id": 397}, {"id": 404}, {"id": 411}, {"id": 418}, {"id": 425}, {"id": 432}, {"id": 439}, {"id": 446}, {"id": 453}, {"id": 460}, {"id": 467}, {"id": 474}, {"id": 481}, {"id": 488}, {"id": 495}, {"id": 502}, {"id": 509}, {"id": 516}, {"id": 523}, {"id": 530}, {"id": 537}, {"id": 544}, {"id": 551}, {"id": 558}, {"id": 565}, {"id": 572}, {"id": 579}, {"id": 586}, {"id": 593}, {"id": 600}, {"id": 607}, {"id": 614}, {"id": 621}, {"id": 628}, {"id": 635}, {"id": 642}, {"id": 649}, {"id": 656}, {"id": 663}, {"id": 670}, {"id": 677}, {"id": 684}, {"id": 691}, {"id": 698}, {"id": 705}, {"id": 712}, {"id": 719}, {"id": 726}, {"id": 733}, {"id": 740}, {"id": 747}, {"id": 754}, {"id": 761}, {"id": 768}, {"id": 775}, {"id": 782}, {"id": 789}, {"id": 796}, {"id": 803}, {"id": 810}, {"id": 817}, {"id": 824}, {"id": 831}, {"id": 838}, {"id": 845}, {"id": 852}, {"id": 859}, {"id": 866}, {"id": 873}, {"id": 880}, {"id": 887}, {"id": 894}, {"id": 901}, {"id": 908}, {"id": 915}, {"id": 922}, {"id": 929}, {"id": 936}, {"id": 943}, {"id": 950}, {"id": 957}, {"id": 964}, {"id": 971}, {"id": 978}, {"id": 985}, {"id": 992}, {"id": 999}, {"id": 1006}, {"id": 1013}, {"id": 1020}, {"id": 1027}, {"id": 1034}, {"id": 1041}, {"id": 1048}, {"id": 1055}, {"id": 1062}, {"id": 1069}, {"id": 1076}, {"id": 1083}, {"id": 1090}, {"id": 1097}, {"id": 1104}, {"id": 1111}, {"id": 1118}, {"id": 1125}, {"id": 1132}, {"id": 1139}, {"id": 1146}, {"id": 1153}, {"id": 1160}, {"id": 1167}, {"id": 1174}, {"id": 1181}, {"id": 1188}, {"id": 1195}, {"id": 1202}, {"id": 1209}, {"id": 1216}, {"id": 1223}, {"id": 1230}, {"id": 1237}, {"id": 1244}, {"id": 1251}, {"id": 1258}, {"id": 1265}, {"id": 1272}, {"id": 1279}, {"id": 1286}, {"id": 1293}, {"id": 1300}, {"id": 1307}, {"id": 1314}, {"id": 1321}, {"id": 1328}, {"id": 1335}, {"id": 1342}, {"id": 1349}, {"id": 1356}, {"id": 1363}, {"id": 1370}, {"id": 1377}, {"id": 1384}, {"id": 1391}, {"id": 1398}, {"id": 1405}, {"id": 1412}, {"id": 1419}, {"id": 1426}, {"id": 1433}, {"id": 1440}, {"id": 1447}, {"id": 1454}, {"id": 1461}, {"id": 1468}, {"id": 1475}, {"id": 1482}, {"id": 1489}, {"id": 1496}, {"id": 1503}, {"id": 1510}, {"id": 1517}, {"id": 1524}, {"id": 1531}, {"id": 1538}, {"id": 1545}, {"id": 1552}, {"id": 1559}, {"id": 1566}, {"id": 1573}, {"id": 1580}, {"id": 1587}, {"id": 1594}, {"id": 1601}, {"id": 1608}, {"id": 1615}, {"id": 1622}, {"id": 1629}]}, "entities": {"values": [{"id": 15, "name": "Afghanistan", "code": "AFG"}, {"id": 16, "name": "Albania", "code": "ALB"}, {"id": 17, "name": "Algeria", "code": "DZA"}, {"id": 246, "name": "American Samoa", "code": "ASM"}, {"id": 18, "name": "Andorra", "code": "AND"}, {"id": 19, "name": "Angola", "code": "AGO"}, {"id": 228, "name": "Anguilla", "code": "AIA"}, {"id": 20, "name": "Antigua and Barbuda", "code": "ATG"}, {"id": 21, "name": "Argentina", "code": "ARG"}, {"id": 22, "name": "Armenia", "code": "ARM"}, {"id": 219, "name": "Aruba", "code": "ABW"}, {"id": 23, "name": "Australia", "code": "AUS"}, {"id": 24, "name": "Austria", "code": "AUT"}, {"id": 25, "name": "Azerbaijan", "code": "AZE"}, {"id": 26, "name": "Bahamas", "code": "BHS"}, {"id": 27, "name": "Bahrain", "code": "BHR"}, {"id": 28, "name": "Bangladesh", "code": "BGD"}, {"id": 29, "name": "Barbados", "code": "BRB"}, {"id": 30, "name": "Belarus", "code": "BLR"}, {"id": 4, "name": "Belgium", "code": "BEL"}, {"id": 31, "name": "Belize", "code": "BLZ"}, {"id": 32, "name": "Benin", "code": "BEN"}, {"id": 194, "name": "Bermuda", "code": "BMU"}, {"id": 33, "name": "Bhutan", "code": "BTN"}, {"id": 34, "name": "Bolivia", "code": "BOL"}, {"id": 348, "name": "Bonaire Sint Eustatius and Saba", "code": "BES"}, {"id": 35, "name": "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "code": "BIH"}, {"id": 36, "name": "Botswana", "code": "BWA"}, {"id": 37, "name": "Brazil", "code": "BRA"}, {"id": 196, "name": "British Virgin Islands", "code": "VGB"}, {"id": 38, "name": "Brunei", "code": "BRN"}, {"id": 39, "name": "Bulgaria", "code": "BGR"}, {"id": 40, "name": "Burkina Faso", "code": "BFA"}, {"id": 41, "name": "Burundi", "code": "BDI"}, {"id": 42, "name": "Cambodia", "code": "KHM"}, {"id": 43, "name": "Cameroon", "code": "CMR"}, {"id": 44, "name": "Canada", "code": "CAN"}, {"id": 45, "name": "Cape Verde", "code": "CPV"}, {"id": 197, "name": "Cayman Islands", "code": "CYM"}, {"id": 174, "name": "Central African Republic", "code": "CAF"}, {"id": 173, "name": "Chad", "code": "TCD"}, {"id": 172, "name": "Chile", "code": "CHL"}, {"id": 171, "name": "China", "code": "CHN"}, {"id": 170, "name": "Colombia", "code": "COL"}, {"id": 169, "name": "Comoros", "code": "COM"}, {"id": 168, "name": "Congo", "code": "COG"}, {"id": 199, "name": "Cook Islands", "code": "COK"}, {"id": 166, "name": "Costa Rica", "code": "CRI"}, {"id": 143, "name": "Cote d'Ivoire", "code": "CIV"}, {"id": 165, "name": "Croatia", "code": "HRV"}, {"id": 164, "name": "Cuba", "code": "CUB"}, {"id": 279, "name": "Curacao", "code": "CUW"}, {"id": 163, "name": "Cyprus", "code": "CYP"}, {"id": 162, "name": "Czechia", "code": "CZE"}, {"id": 167, "name": "Democratic Republic of Congo", "code": "COD"}, {"id": 161, "name": "Denmark", "code": "DNK"}, {"id": 154, "name": "Djibouti", "code": "DJI"}, {"id": 200, "name": "Dominica", "code": "DMA"}, {"id": 160, "name": "Dominican Republic", "code": "DOM"}, {"id": 225, "name": "East Timor", "code": "TLS"}, {"id": 201, "name": "Ecuador", "code": "ECU"}, {"id": 65, "name": "Egypt", "code": "EGY"}, {"id": 259, "name": "El Salvador", "code": "SLV"}, {"id": 159, "name": "Equatorial Guinea", "code": "GNQ"}, {"id": 157, "name": "Eritrea", "code": "ERI"}, {"id": 156, "name": "Estonia", "code": "EST"}, {"id": 78, "name": "Eswatini", "code": "SWZ"}, {"id": 158, "name": "Ethiopia", "code": "ETH"}, {"id": 249, "name": "Falkland Islands", "code": "FLK"}, {"id": 250, "name": "Faroe Islands", "code": "FRO"}, {"id": 202, "name": "Fiji", "code": "FJI"}, {"id": 155, "name": "Finland", "code": "FIN"}, {"id": 3, "name": "France", "code": "FRA"}, {"id": 253, "name": "French Guiana", "code": "GUF"}, {"id": 203, "name": "French Polynesia", "code": "PYF"}, {"id": 153, "name": "Gabon", "code": "GAB"}, {"id": 151, "name": "Gambia", "code": "GMB"}, {"id": 152, "name": "Georgia", "code": "GEO"}, {"id": 6, "name": "Germany", "code": "DEU"}, {"id": 150, "name": "Ghana", "code": "GHA"}, {"id": 251, "name": "Gibraltar", "code": "GIB"}, {"id": 149, "name": "Greece", "code": "GRC"}, {"id": 205, "name": "Greenland", "code": "GRL"}, {"id": 206, "name": "Grenada", "code": "GRD"}, {"id": 252, "name": "Guadeloupe", "code": "GLP"}, {"id": 254, "name": "Guam", "code": "GUM"}, {"id": 148, "name": "Guatemala", "code": "GTM"}, {"id": 282, "name": "Guernsey", "code": "GGY"}, {"id": 147, "name": "Guinea", "code": "GIN"}, {"id": 94, "name": "Guinea-Bissau", "code": "GNB"}, {"id": 146, "name": "Guyana", "code": "GUY"}, {"id": 145, "name": "Haiti", "code": "HTI"}, {"id": 139, "name": "Honduras", "code": "HND"}, {"id": 144, "name": "Hong Kong", "code": "HKG"}, {"id": 138, "name": "Hungary", "code": "HUN"}, {"id": 207, "name": "Iceland", "code": "ISL"}, {"id": 137, "name": "India", "code": "IND"}, {"id": 136, "name": "Indonesia", "code": "IDN"}, {"id": 135, "name": "Iran", "code": "IRN"}, {"id": 134, "name": "Iraq", "code": "IRQ"}, {"id": 2, "name": "Ireland", "code": "IRL"}, {"id": 265, "name": "Isle of Man", "code": "IMN"}, {"id": 133, "name": "Israel", "code": "ISR"}, {"id": 8, "name": "Italy", "code": "ITA"}, {"id": 132, "name": "Jamaica", "code": "JAM"}, {"id": 14, "name": "Japan", "code": "JPN"}, {"id": 283, "name": "Jersey", "code": "JEY"}, {"id": 130, "name": "Jordan", "code": "JOR"}, {"id": 131, "name": "Kazakhstan", "code": "KAZ"}, {"id": 129, "name": "Kenya", "code": "KEN"}, {"id": 204, "name": "Kiribati", "code": "KIR"}, {"id": 379, "name": "Kosovo", "code": "OWID_KOS"}, {"id": 208, "name": "Kuwait", "code": "KWT"}, {"id": 126, "name": "Kyrgyzstan", "code": "KGZ"}, {"id": 125, "name": "Laos", "code": "LAO"}, {"id": 122, "name": "Latvia", "code": "LVA"}, {"id": 124, "name": "Lebanon", "code": "LBN"}, {"id": 123, "name": "Lesotho", "code": "LSO"}, {"id": 121, "name": "Liberia", "code": "LBR"}, {"id": 120, "name": "Libya", "code": "LBY"}, {"id": 209, "name": "Liechtenstein", "code": "LIE"}, {"id": 119, "name": "Lithuania", "code": "LTU"}, {"id": 210, "name": "Luxembourg", "code": "LUX"}, {"id": 262, "name": "Macao", "code": "MAC"}, {"id": 118, "name": "Madagascar", "code": "MDG"}, {"id": 117, "name": "Malawi", "code": "MWI"}, {"id": 116, "name": "Malaysia", "code": "MYS"}, {"id": 211, "name": "Maldives", "code": "MDV"}, {"id": 115, "name": "Mali", "code": "MLI"}, {"id": 212, "name": "Malta", "code": "MLT"}, {"id": 223, "name": "Marshall Islands", "code": "MHL"}, {"id": 284, "name": "Martinique", "code": "MTQ"}, {"id": 114, "name": "Mauritania", "code": "MRT"}, {"id": 213, "name": "Mauritius", "code": "MUS"}, {"id": 193, "name": "Mayotte", "code": "MYT"}, {"id": 113, "name": "Mexico", "code": "MEX"}, {"id": 222, "name": "Micronesia (country)", "code": "FSM"}, {"id": 111, "name": "Moldova", "code": "MDA"}, {"id": 214, "name": "Monaco", "code": "MCO"}, {"id": 112, "name": "Mongolia", "code": "MNG"}, {"id": 215, "name": "Montenegro", "code": "MNE"}, {"id": 216, "name": "Montserrat", "code": "MSR"}, {"id": 110, "name": "Morocco", "code": "MAR"}, {"id": 109, "name": "Mozambique", "code": "MOZ"}, {"id": 142, "name": "Myanmar", "code": "MMR"}, {"id": 108, "name": "Namibia", "code": "NAM"}, {"id": 218, "name": "Nauru", "code": "NRU"}, {"id": 107, "name": "Nepal", "code": "NPL"}, {"id": 5, "name": "Netherlands", "code": "NLD"}, {"id": 220, "name": "New Caledonia", "code": "NCL"}, {"id": 106, "name": "New Zealand", "code": "NZL"}, {"id": 105, "name": "Nicaragua", "code": "NIC"}, {"id": 104, "name": "Niger", "code": "NER"}, {"id": 103, "name": "Nigeria", "code": "NGA"}, {"id": 261, "name": "Niue", "code": "NIU"}, {"id": 66, "name": "North Macedonia", "code": "MKD"}, {"id": 266, "name": "Northern Mariana Islands", "code": "MNP"}, {"id": 102, "name": "Norway", "code": "NOR"}, {"id": 217, "name": "Oman", "code": "OMN"}, {"id": 101, "name": "Pakistan", "code": "PAK"}, {"id": 224, "name": "Palau", "code": "PLW"}, {"id": 140, "name": "Palestine", "code": "PSE"}, {"id": 100, "name": "Panama", "code": "PAN"}, {"id": 99, "name": "Papua New Guinea", "code": "PNG"}, {"id": 98, "name": "Paraguay", "code": "PRY"}, {"id": 97, "name": "Peru", "code": "PER"}, {"id": 96, "name": "Philippines", "code": "PHL"}, {"id": 286, "name": "Pitcairn", "code": "PCN"}, {"id": 11, "name": "Poland", "code": "POL"}, {"id": 95, "name": "Portugal", "code": "PRT"}, {"id": 93, "name": "Puerto Rico", "code": "PRI"}, {"id": 226, "name": "Qatar", "code": "QAT"}, {"id": 245, "name": "Reunion", "code": "REU"}, {"id": 92, "name": "Romania", "code": "ROU"}, {"id": 12, "name": "Russia", "code": "RUS"}, {"id": 91, "name": "Rwanda", "code": "RWA"}, {"id": 260, "name": "Saint Helena", "code": "SHN"}, {"id": 227, "name": "Saint Kitts and Nevis", "code": "KNA"}, {"id": 229, "name": "Saint Lucia", "code": "LCA"}, {"id": 280, "name": "Saint Martin (French part)", "code": "MAF"}, {"id": 353, "name": "Saint Pierre and Miquelon", "code": "SPM"}, {"id": 230, "name": "Saint Vincent and the Grenadines", "code": "VCT"}, {"id": 239, "name": "Samoa", "code": "WSM"}, {"id": 231, "name": "San Marino", "code": "SMR"}, {"id": 232, "name": "Sao Tome and Principe", "code": "STP"}, {"id": 90, "name": "Saudi Arabia", "code": "SAU"}, {"id": 89, "name": "Senegal", "code": "SEN"}, {"id": 88, "name": "Serbia", "code": "SRB"}, {"id": 233, "name": "Seychelles", "code": "SYC"}, {"id": 87, "name": "Sierra Leone", "code": "SLE"}, {"id": 86, "name": "Singapore", "code": "SGP"}, {"id": 281, "name": "Sint Maarten (Dutch part)", "code": "SXM"}, {"id": 85, "name": "Slovakia", "code": "SVK"}, {"id": 83, "name": "Slovenia", "code": "SVN"}, {"id": 195, "name": "Solomon Islands", "code": "SLB"}, {"id": 82, "name": "Somalia", "code": "SOM"}, {"id": 81, "name": "South Africa", "code": "ZAF"}, {"id": 127, "name": "South Korea", "code": "KOR"}, {"id": 258, "name": "South Sudan", "code": "SSD"}, {"id": 9, "name": "Spain", "code": "ESP"}, {"id": 141, "name": "Sri Lanka", "code": "LKA"}, {"id": 79, "name": "Sudan", "code": "SDN"}, {"id": 234, "name": "Suriname", "code": "SUR"}, {"id": 10, "name": "Sweden", "code": "SWE"}, {"id": 7, "name": "Switzerland", "code": "CHE"}, {"id": 77, "name": "Syria", "code": "SYR"}, {"id": 198, "name": "Taiwan", "code": "TWN"}, {"id": 76, "name": "Tajikistan", "code": "TJK"}, {"id": 64, "name": "Tanzania", "code": "TZA"}, {"id": 75, "name": "Thailand", "code": "THA"}, {"id": 74, "name": "Togo", "code": "TGO"}, {"id": 287, "name": "Tokelau", "code": "TKL"}, {"id": 235, "name": "Tonga", "code": "TON"}, {"id": 73, "name": "Trinidad and Tobago", "code": "TTO"}, {"id": 71, "name": "Tunisia", "code": "TUN"}, {"id": 70, "name": "Turkey", "code": "TUR"}, {"id": 69, "name": "Turkmenistan", "code": "TKM"}, {"id": 236, "name": "Turks and Caicos Islands", "code": "TCA"}, {"id": 237, "name": "Tuvalu", "code": "TUV"}, {"id": 68, "name": "Uganda", "code": "UGA"}, {"id": 67, "name": "Ukraine", "code": "UKR"}, {"id": 72, "name": "United Arab Emirates", "code": "ARE"}, {"id": 1, "name": "United Kingdom", "code": "GBR"}, {"id": 13, "name": "United States", "code": "USA"}, {"id": 256, "name": "United States Virgin Islands", "code": "VIR"}, {"id": 63, "name": "Uruguay", "code": "URY"}, {"id": 62, "name": "Uzbekistan", "code": "UZB"}, {"id": 221, "name": "Vanuatu", "code": "VUT"}, {"id": 257, "name": "Vatican", "code": "VAT"}, {"id": 238, "name": "Venezuela", "code": "VEN"}, {"id": 84, "name": "Vietnam", "code": "VNM"}, {"id": 255, "name": "Wallis and Futuna", "code": "WLF"}, {"id": 248, "name": "Western Sahara", "code": "ESH"}, {"id": 355, "name": "World", "code": "OWID_WRL"}, {"id": 61, "name": "Yemen", "code": "YEM"}, {"id": 60, "name": "Zambia", "code": "ZMB"}, {"id": 80, "name": "Zimbabwe", "code": "ZWE"}]}}, "origins": [{"id": 2845, "titleSnapshot": "Excess Deaths Model - Country data (cumulative, per 100k)", "title": "Excess Deaths Model", "description": "The Economist built a statistical/machine-learning model to estimate the true toll of COVID-19 by measuring \u201cexcess deaths\u201d worldwide. It draws on all-cause mortality data from places with reliable death registrations, then relates these data to a range of demographic and socioeconomic indicators. This allows them to predict excess deaths for regions without robust reporting systems.\n\nThe model finds that official COVID-19 counts underestimate actual fatalities, often by a substantial margin. It highlights how discrepancies in reporting and limited testing can fail to capture the real impact of the pandemic. The Economist regularly updates its predictions and releases them through a public GitHub repository.\n\nIt comes with certain limitations due to data gaps and reliance on approximate indicators where reliable records are scarce.\n\n**Interpreting estimates** (from their GitHub repository):\n\nEstimating excess deaths for every country every day since the pandemic began is a complex and difficult task. Rather than being overly confident in a single number, limited data means that we can often only give a very very wide range of plausible values. Focusing on central estimates in such cases would be misleading: unless ranges are very narrow, the 95% range should be reported when possible. The ranges assume that the conditions for bootstrap confidence intervals are met. Please see [our tracker page](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) and [methodology](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/13/how-we-estimated-the-true-death-toll-of-the-pandemic) for more information.", "producer": "The Economist", "citationFull": "The Economist and Solstad, S. (corresponding author), 2021. The pandemic's true death toll. [online] The Economist. Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates [Accessed 2025-02-12]. First published in the article \"Counting the dead\", The Economist, issue 20, 2021.\n\nComplete citation: https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model/blob/main/citation.cff", "urlMain": "https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model/tree/main", "urlDownload": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model/refs/heads/main/output-data/export_country_per_100k_cumulative.csv", "dateAccessed": "2025-02-12", "datePublished": "2024", "license": {"url": "https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model/tree/main?tab=MIT-1-ov-file#readme", "name": "MIT License"}}, {"id": 2846, "titleSnapshot": "Excess Deaths Model - World data (cumulative, per 100k)", "title": "Excess Deaths Model", "description": "The Economist built a statistical/machine-learning model to estimate the true toll of COVID-19 by measuring \u201cexcess deaths\u201d worldwide. It draws on all-cause mortality data from places with reliable death registrations, then relates these data to a range of demographic and socioeconomic indicators. This allows them to predict excess deaths for regions without robust reporting systems.\n\nThe model finds that official COVID-19 counts underestimate actual fatalities, often by a substantial margin. It highlights how discrepancies in reporting and limited testing can fail to capture the real impact of the pandemic. The Economist regularly updates its predictions and releases them through a public GitHub repository.\n\nIt comes with certain limitations due to data gaps and reliance on approximate indicators where reliable records are scarce.\n\n**Interpreting estimates** (from their GitHub repository):\n\nEstimating excess deaths for every country every day since the pandemic began is a complex and difficult task. Rather than being overly confident in a single number, limited data means that we can often only give a very very wide range of plausible values. Focusing on central estimates in such cases would be misleading: unless ranges are very narrow, the 95% range should be reported when possible. The ranges assume that the conditions for bootstrap confidence intervals are met. Please see [our tracker page](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) and [methodology](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/13/how-we-estimated-the-true-death-toll-of-the-pandemic) for more information.", "producer": "The Economist", "citationFull": "The Economist and Solstad, S. (corresponding author), 2021. The pandemic's true death toll. [online] The Economist. Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates [Accessed 2025-02-12]. First published in the article \"Counting the dead\", The Economist, issue 20, 2021.\n\nComplete citation: https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model/blob/main/citation.cff", "urlMain": "https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model/tree/main", "urlDownload": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model/refs/heads/main/output-data/export_world_per_100k_cumulative.csv", "dateAccessed": "2025-02-12", "datePublished": "2024", "license": {"url": "https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model/tree/main?tab=MIT-1-ov-file#readme", "name": "MIT License"}}]}