{"id": 1004682, "name": "Effective Fertility rate, distribution by age (year 1925)", "unit": "children per women", "createdAt": "2024-12-20T20:16:17.000Z", "updatedAt": "2025-07-29T13:39:27.000Z", "coverage": "", "timespan": "0-100", "datasetId": 6865, "columnOrder": 0, "shortName": "efr__birth_year_1925", "catalogPath": "grapher/demography/2024-12-17/efr_malani_jacob/distribution#efr__birth_year_1925", "dimensions": {"years": {"values": [{"id": 0}, {"id": 1}, {"id": 2}, {"id": 3}, {"id": 4}, {"id": 5}, {"id": 6}, {"id": 7}, {"id": 8}, {"id": 9}, {"id": 10}, {"id": 11}, {"id": 12}, {"id": 13}, {"id": 14}, {"id": 15}, {"id": 16}, {"id": 17}, {"id": 18}, {"id": 19}, {"id": 20}, {"id": 21}, {"id": 22}, {"id": 23}, {"id": 24}, {"id": 25}, {"id": 26}, {"id": 27}, {"id": 28}, {"id": 29}, {"id": 30}, {"id": 31}, {"id": 32}, {"id": 33}, {"id": 34}, {"id": 35}, {"id": 36}, {"id": 37}, {"id": 38}, {"id": 39}, {"id": 40}, {"id": 41}, {"id": 42}, {"id": 43}, {"id": 44}, {"id": 45}, {"id": 46}, {"id": 47}, {"id": 48}, {"id": 49}, {"id": 50}, {"id": 51}, {"id": 52}, {"id": 53}, {"id": 54}, {"id": 55}, {"id": 56}, {"id": 57}, {"id": 58}, {"id": 59}, {"id": 60}, {"id": 61}, {"id": 62}, {"id": 63}, {"id": 64}, {"id": 65}, {"id": 66}, {"id": 67}, {"id": 68}, {"id": 69}, {"id": 70}, {"id": 71}, {"id": 72}, {"id": 73}, {"id": 74}, {"id": 75}, {"id": 76}, {"id": 77}, {"id": 78}, {"id": 79}, {"id": 80}, {"id": 81}, {"id": 82}, {"id": 83}, {"id": 84}, {"id": 85}, {"id": 86}, {"id": 87}, {"id": 88}, {"id": 89}, {"id": 90}, {"id": 91}, {"id": 92}, {"id": 93}, {"id": 94}, {"id": 95}, {"id": 96}, {"id": 97}, {"id": 98}, {"id": 99}, {"id": 100}]}, "entities": {"values": [{"id": 23, "name": "Australia", "code": "AUS"}, {"id": 4, "name": "Belgium", "code": "BEL"}, {"id": 44, "name": "Canada", "code": "CAN"}, {"id": 161, "name": "Denmark", "code": "DNK"}, {"id": 278, "name": "England and Wales", "code": null}, {"id": 155, "name": "Finland", "code": "FIN"}, {"id": 3, "name": "France", "code": "FRA"}, {"id": 207, "name": "Iceland", "code": "ISL"}, {"id": 8, "name": "Italy", "code": "ITA"}, {"id": 5, "name": "Netherlands", "code": "NLD"}, {"id": 357, "name": "Northern Ireland", "code": null}, {"id": 102, "name": "Norway", "code": "NOR"}, {"id": 358, "name": "Scotland", "code": null}, {"id": 9, "name": "Spain", "code": "ESP"}, {"id": 10, "name": "Sweden", "code": "SWE"}, {"id": 7, "name": "Switzerland", "code": "CHE"}, {"id": 1, "name": "United Kingdom", "code": "GBR"}]}}, "descriptionShort": "The EFR for a given age gives us an approximation of the average number of children from a woman that will live long enough to reach that age.", "descriptionProcessing": "For a given cohort year, we estimate the cumulative survival probability for a person to reach each age from 0 to 100. For example, the probability of a person born in 2000 reaching age 15, 16, 17, and so on. We have used HMD data for years before 1950, and UN's for years after 1950 (including).\n\nWe then estimate the Effective Fertility Rate (EFR) for each age group by multiplying the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) by the cumulative survival probability. The EFR for a given age gives us an approximation of the average number of children from a woman that will live long enough to reach that age.\n\nFor years before 1950, we have used HMD data, which does not provide TFR values. Instead, we have used an approximation of the TFR based on births and female population (in reproductive ages), as suggested by Jacob and Malani (2024).\n\nRead more details in the author's paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/w33175", "type": "float", "dataChecksum": "9166266288392477802", "metadataChecksum": "8551002388220143083", "datasetName": "Effective Fertility Rates (Malani and Jacob)", "updatePeriodDays": 365, "datasetVersion": "2024-12-17", "nonRedistributable": false, "display": {"unit": "children per women"}, "schemaVersion": 2, "presentation": {"topicTagsLinks": ["Fertility Rate"]}, "origins": [{"id": 2220, "title": "A New Measure of Surviving Children that Sheds Light on Long-term Trends in Fertility", "description": "\nThe world has experienced a dramatic decline in total fertility rate (TFR) since the Industrial Revolution. Yet the consequences of this decline flow not merely from a reduction in births, but from a reduction in the number of surviving children. Authors propose a new measure of the number of surviving children per female, which authors call the effective fertility rate (EFR). EFR can be approximated as the product of TFR and the probability of survival. Moreover, TFR changes can be decomposed into changes that preserve EFR and those that change EFR. Authors specialized EFR to measure the number of daughters that survive to reproduce (reproductive EFR) and the number children that survive to become workers (labor EFR).\n\nAuthors use three data sets to shed light on EFR over time across locations. First, authors use data from 165 countries between 1950-2019 to show that one-third of the global decline in TFR during this period did not change labor EFR, suggesting that a substantial portion of fertility decline merely compensated for higher survival rates. Focusing on the change in labor EFR, at least 40% of variation cannot be explained by economic factors such as income, prices, education levels, structural transformation, an urbanization, leaving room for explanations like cultural change. Second, using historical demographic data on European countries since 1750, authors find that there was dramatic fluctuation in labor EFR in Europe around each of the World Wars, a phenomenon that is distinct from the demographic transition. However, prior to that fluctuation, EFRs were remarkably constant, even as European countries were undergoing demographic transitions. Indeed, even when EFRs fell below 2 after 1975, we find that EFRs remained stable rather than continuing to decline. Third, data from the US since 1800 reveal that, despite great differences in mortality rates, Black and White populations have remarkably similar numbers of surviving children over time.\n\n\n", "producer": "Malani and Jacob", "citationFull": "Malani, A., & Jacob, A. (2024). A New Measure of Surviving Children that Sheds Light on Long-term Trends in Fertility. https://doi.org/10.3386/w33175", "urlMain": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w33175", "datePublished": "2024-11-01"}, {"id": 6894, "titleSnapshot": "World Population Prospects, Fertility by Five-year Age Groups", "title": "World Population Prospects", "description": "World Population Prospects 2024 is the 28th edition of the official estimates and projections of the global population that have been published by the United Nations since 1951. The estimates are based on all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality and international migration for 237 countries or areas. If you have questions about this dataset, please refer to [their FAQ](https://population.un.org/wpp/faqs). You can also explore [data sources](https://population.un.org/wpp/data-sources) for each country or visit [their main page](https://population.un.org/wpp/) for more details.", "producer": "United Nations", "citationFull": "United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.", "attribution": "UN, World Population Prospects (2024)", "attributionShort": "UN WPP", "urlMain": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "urlDownload": "https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Fertility_by_Age5.csv.gz", "dateAccessed": "2024-07-11", "datePublished": "2024-07-11", "license": {"url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "name": "CC BY 3.0 IGO"}}, {"id": 6893, "titleSnapshot": "World Population Prospects, Demographic indicators", "title": "World Population Prospects", "description": "World Population Prospects 2024 is the 28th edition of the official estimates and projections of the global population that have been published by the United Nations since 1951. The estimates are based on all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality and international migration for 237 countries or areas. If you have questions about this dataset, please refer to [their FAQ](https://population.un.org/wpp/faqs). You can also explore [data sources](https://population.un.org/wpp/data-sources) for each country or visit [their main page](https://population.un.org/wpp/) for more details.", "producer": "United Nations", "citationFull": "United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.", "attribution": "UN, World Population Prospects (2024)", "attributionShort": "UN WPP", "urlMain": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "urlDownload": "https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_FULL.xlsx", "dateAccessed": "2024-07-11", "datePublished": "2024-07-11", "license": {"url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "name": "CC BY 3.0 IGO"}}, {"id": 6871, "title": "Human Mortality Database", "description": "The Human Mortality Database (HMD) is a research resource that provides detailed mortality and population data for national populations with high-quality vital statistics. It includes original calculations of death rates and life tables, as well as the underlying data \u2014 such as birth counts, death counts, and census-based population estimates \u2014 used to produce these metrics.\n\nIts scope is limited to countries with virtually complete death registration and census coverage, mostly wealthy and industrialized nations. The database\u2019s core mission is to document the historical rise in human longevity and support research into its causes and implications. HMD follows a rigorous, uniform methodology focused on transparency, reproducibility, and comparability, while acknowledging limitations such as age misreporting and data coverage issues.\n\nEach country\u2019s dataset is curated and quality-checked by dedicated researchers, ensuring reliability for demographic and public health analysis.", "producer": "Human Mortality Database", "citationFull": "HMD. Human Mortality Database. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany), University of California, Berkeley (USA), and French Institute for Demographic Studies (France). Available at www.mortality.org.\n\nSee also the methods protocol:\nWilmoth, J. R., Andreev, K., Jdanov, D., Glei, D. A., Riffe, T., Boe, C., Bubenheim, M., Philipov, D., Shkolnikov, V., Vachon, P., Winant, C., & Barbieri, M. (2021). Methods protocol for the human mortality database (v6). [Available online](https://www.mortality.org/File/GetDocument/Public/Docs/MethodsProtocolV6.pdf) (needs log in to mortality.org).", "attributionShort": "HMD", "urlMain": "https://www.mortality.org/Data/ZippedDataFiles", "dateAccessed": "2024-11-27", "datePublished": "2024-11-13", "license": {"url": "https://www.mortality.org/Data/UserAgreement", "name": "CC BY 4.0"}}, {"id": 6887, "titleSnapshot": "World Population Prospects - Life Tables (Both sexes)", "title": "World Population Prospects", "descriptionSnapshot": "Provides single-age life tables up to age 100 for both sexes with a set of values showing the mortality experience of a hypothetical group of infants born at the same time and subject throughout their lifetime to the specific mortality rates of a given year. The following series are provided: age-specific mortality rates (mx), probabilities of dying (qx), probabilities of surviving (px), number surviving (lx), number dying (dx), number of person-years lived (Lx), survivorship ratios (Sx), cumulative stationary population (Tx), average remaining life expectancy (ex) and average number of years lived (ax).", "description": "The World Population Prospects 2024 is the 28th edition of the official estimates and projections of the global population published by the United Nations since 1951. The estimates are based on all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality, and international migration for 237 countries or areas.\n\nFor each revision, any new, recent, and historical, information that has become available from population censuses, vital registration of births and deaths, and household surveys is considered to produce consistent time series of population estimates for each country or areas from 1950 to today\n\nFor the estimation period between 1950 and 2023, data from 1,910 censuses were considered in the present evaluation, which is 79 more than the 2022 revision. In some countries, population registers based on administrative data systems provide the necessary information. Population data from censuses or registers referring to 2019 or later were available for 114 countries or areas, representing 48 per cent of the 237 countries or areas included in this analysis (and 54 per cent of the world population). For 43 countries or areas, the most recent available population count was from the period 2014-2018, and for another 57 locations from the period 2009-2013. For the remaining 23 countries or areas, the most recent available census data were from before 2009, that is more than 15 years ago.", "producer": "United Nations", "citationFull": "United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.", "attribution": "UN, World Population Prospects (2024)", "attributionShort": "UN WPP", "urlMain": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "dateAccessed": "2024-12-02", "datePublished": "2024-07-11", "license": {"url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "name": "CC BY 3.0 IGO"}}, {"id": 6888, "titleSnapshot": "World Population Prospects - Life Tables (Female)", "title": "World Population Prospects", "descriptionSnapshot": "Provides single-age life tables up to age 100 for females with a set of values showing the mortality experience of a hypothetical group of infants born at the same time and subject throughout their lifetime to the specific mortality rates of a given year. The following series are provided: age-specific mortality rates (mx), probabilities of dying (qx), probabilities of surviving (px), number surviving (lx), number dying (dx), number of person-years lived (Lx), survivorship ratios (Sx), cumulative stationary population (Tx), average remaining life expectancy (ex) and average number of years lived (ax).", "description": "The World Population Prospects 2024 is the 28th edition of the official estimates and projections of the global population published by the United Nations since 1951. The estimates are based on all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality, and international migration for 237 countries or areas.\n\nFor each revision, any new, recent, and historical, information that has become available from population censuses, vital registration of births and deaths, and household surveys is considered to produce consistent time series of population estimates for each country or areas from 1950 to today\n\nFor the estimation period between 1950 and 2023, data from 1,910 censuses were considered in the present evaluation, which is 79 more than the 2022 revision. In some countries, population registers based on administrative data systems provide the necessary information. Population data from censuses or registers referring to 2019 or later were available for 114 countries or areas, representing 48 per cent of the 237 countries or areas included in this analysis (and 54 per cent of the world population). For 43 countries or areas, the most recent available population count was from the period 2014-2018, and for another 57 locations from the period 2009-2013. For the remaining 23 countries or areas, the most recent available census data were from before 2009, that is more than 15 years ago.", "producer": "United Nations", "citationFull": "United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.", "attribution": "UN, World Population Prospects (2024)", "attributionShort": "UN WPP", "urlMain": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "dateAccessed": "2024-12-02", "datePublished": "2024-07-11", "license": {"url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "name": "CC BY 3.0 IGO"}}, {"id": 6889, "titleSnapshot": "World Population Prospects - Life Tables (Male)", "title": "World Population Prospects", "descriptionSnapshot": "Provides single-age life tables up to age 100 for males with a set of values showing the mortality experience of a hypothetical group of infants born at the same time and subject throughout their lifetime to the specific mortality rates of a given year. The following series are provided: age-specific mortality rates (mx), probabilities of dying (qx), probabilities of surviving (px), number surviving (lx), number dying (dx), number of person-years lived (Lx), survivorship ratios (Sx), cumulative stationary population (Tx), average remaining life expectancy (ex) and average number of years lived (ax).", "description": "The World Population Prospects 2024 is the 28th edition of the official estimates and projections of the global population published by the United Nations since 1951. The estimates are based on all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality, and international migration for 237 countries or areas.\n\nFor each revision, any new, recent, and historical, information that has become available from population censuses, vital registration of births and deaths, and household surveys is considered to produce consistent time series of population estimates for each country or areas from 1950 to today\n\nFor the estimation period between 1950 and 2023, data from 1,910 censuses were considered in the present evaluation, which is 79 more than the 2022 revision. In some countries, population registers based on administrative data systems provide the necessary information. Population data from censuses or registers referring to 2019 or later were available for 114 countries or areas, representing 48 per cent of the 237 countries or areas included in this analysis (and 54 per cent of the world population). For 43 countries or areas, the most recent available population count was from the period 2014-2018, and for another 57 locations from the period 2009-2013. For the remaining 23 countries or areas, the most recent available census data were from before 2009, that is more than 15 years ago.", "producer": "United Nations", "citationFull": "United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.", "attribution": "UN, World Population Prospects (2024)", "attributionShort": "UN WPP", "urlMain": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "dateAccessed": "2024-12-02", "datePublished": "2024-07-11", "license": {"url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "name": "CC BY 3.0 IGO"}}, {"id": 6890, "titleSnapshot": "World Population Prospects - Life Tables (Medium projections, Both sexes)", "title": "World Population Prospects", "descriptionSnapshot": "Provides single-age life tables up to age 100 for both sexes projected to 2024-2100 using Medium scenario. It contains a set of values showing the mortality experience of a hypothetical group of infants born at the same time and subject throughout their lifetime to the specific mortality rates of a given year. The following series are provided: age-specific mortality rates (mx), probabilities of dying (qx), probabilities of surviving (px), number surviving (lx), number dying (dx), number of person-years lived (Lx), survivorship ratios (Sx), cumulative stationary population (Tx), average remaining life expectancy (ex) and average number of years lived (ax).", "description": "The World Population Prospects 2024 is the 28th edition of the official estimates and projections of the global population published by the United Nations since 1951. The estimates are based on all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality, and international migration for 237 countries or areas.\n\nFor each revision, any new, recent, and historical, information that has become available from population censuses, vital registration of births and deaths, and household surveys is considered to produce consistent time series of population estimates for each country or areas from 1950 to today\n\nFor the estimation period between 1950 and 2023, data from 1,910 censuses were considered in the present evaluation, which is 79 more than the 2022 revision. In some countries, population registers based on administrative data systems provide the necessary information. Population data from censuses or registers referring to 2019 or later were available for 114 countries or areas, representing 48 per cent of the 237 countries or areas included in this analysis (and 54 per cent of the world population). For 43 countries or areas, the most recent available population count was from the period 2014-2018, and for another 57 locations from the period 2009-2013. For the remaining 23 countries or areas, the most recent available census data were from before 2009, that is more than 15 years ago.", "producer": "United Nations", "citationFull": "United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.", "attribution": "UN, World Population Prospects (2024)", "attributionShort": "UN WPP", "urlMain": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "dateAccessed": "2024-12-17", "datePublished": "2024-07-11", "license": {"url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "name": "CC BY 3.0 IGO"}}, {"id": 6891, "titleSnapshot": "World Population Prospects - Life Tables (Medium projections, Female)", "title": "World Population Prospects", "descriptionSnapshot": "Provides single-age life tables up to age 100 for females projected to 2024-2100 using Medium scenario. It contains a set of values showing the mortality experience of a hypothetical group of infants born at the same time and subject throughout their lifetime to the specific mortality rates of a given year. The following series are provided: age-specific mortality rates (mx), probabilities of dying (qx), probabilities of surviving (px), number surviving (lx), number dying (dx), number of person-years lived (Lx), survivorship ratios (Sx), cumulative stationary population (Tx), average remaining life expectancy (ex) and average number of years lived (ax).", "description": "The World Population Prospects 2024 is the 28th edition of the official estimates and projections of the global population published by the United Nations since 1951. The estimates are based on all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality, and international migration for 237 countries or areas.\n\nFor each revision, any new, recent, and historical, information that has become available from population censuses, vital registration of births and deaths, and household surveys is considered to produce consistent time series of population estimates for each country or areas from 1950 to today\n\nFor the estimation period between 1950 and 2023, data from 1,910 censuses were considered in the present evaluation, which is 79 more than the 2022 revision. In some countries, population registers based on administrative data systems provide the necessary information. Population data from censuses or registers referring to 2019 or later were available for 114 countries or areas, representing 48 per cent of the 237 countries or areas included in this analysis (and 54 per cent of the world population). For 43 countries or areas, the most recent available population count was from the period 2014-2018, and for another 57 locations from the period 2009-2013. For the remaining 23 countries or areas, the most recent available census data were from before 2009, that is more than 15 years ago.", "producer": "United Nations", "citationFull": "United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.", "attribution": "UN, World Population Prospects (2024)", "attributionShort": "UN WPP", "urlMain": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "dateAccessed": "2024-12-17", "datePublished": "2024-07-11", "license": {"url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "name": "CC BY 3.0 IGO"}}, {"id": 6892, "titleSnapshot": "World Population Prospects - Life Tables (Medium projections, Male)", "title": "World Population Prospects", "descriptionSnapshot": "Provides single-age life tables up to age 100 for males projected to 2024-2100 using Medium scenario. It contains a set of values showing the mortality experience of a hypothetical group of infants born at the same time and subject throughout their lifetime to the specific mortality rates of a given year. The following series are provided: age-specific mortality rates (mx), probabilities of dying (qx), probabilities of surviving (px), number surviving (lx), number dying (dx), number of person-years lived (Lx), survivorship ratios (Sx), cumulative stationary population (Tx), average remaining life expectancy (ex) and average number of years lived (ax).", "description": "The World Population Prospects 2024 is the 28th edition of the official estimates and projections of the global population published by the United Nations since 1951. The estimates are based on all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality, and international migration for 237 countries or areas.\n\nFor each revision, any new, recent, and historical, information that has become available from population censuses, vital registration of births and deaths, and household surveys is considered to produce consistent time series of population estimates for each country or areas from 1950 to today\n\nFor the estimation period between 1950 and 2023, data from 1,910 censuses were considered in the present evaluation, which is 79 more than the 2022 revision. In some countries, population registers based on administrative data systems provide the necessary information. Population data from censuses or registers referring to 2019 or later were available for 114 countries or areas, representing 48 per cent of the 237 countries or areas included in this analysis (and 54 per cent of the world population). For 43 countries or areas, the most recent available population count was from the period 2014-2018, and for another 57 locations from the period 2009-2013. For the remaining 23 countries or areas, the most recent available census data were from before 2009, that is more than 15 years ago.", "producer": "United Nations", "citationFull": "United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.", "attribution": "UN, World Population Prospects (2024)", "attributionShort": "UN WPP", "urlMain": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "dateAccessed": "2024-12-17", "datePublished": "2024-07-11", "license": {"url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads/", "name": "CC BY 3.0 IGO"}}]}