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{"id": 12, "name": "Russia", "code": "RUS"}, {"id": 231, "name": "San Marino", "code": "SMR"}, {"id": 232, "name": "Sao Tome and Principe", "code": "STP"}, {"id": 90, "name": "Saudi Arabia", "code": "SAU"}, {"id": 89, "name": "Senegal", "code": "SEN"}, {"id": 88, "name": "Serbia", "code": "SRB"}, {"id": 87, "name": "Sierra Leone", "code": "SLE"}, {"id": 86, "name": "Singapore", "code": "SGP"}, {"id": 281, "name": "Sint Maarten (Dutch part)", "code": "SXM"}, {"id": 85, "name": "Slovakia", "code": "SVK"}, {"id": 83, "name": "Slovenia", "code": "SVN"}, {"id": 82, "name": "Somalia", "code": "SOM"}, {"id": 81, "name": "South Africa", "code": "ZAF"}, {"id": 127, "name": "South Korea", "code": "KOR"}, {"id": 258, "name": "South Sudan", "code": "SSD"}, {"id": 9, "name": "Spain", "code": "ESP"}, {"id": 141, "name": "Sri Lanka", "code": "LKA"}, {"id": 79, "name": "Sudan", "code": "SDN"}, {"id": 234, "name": "Suriname", "code": "SUR"}, {"id": 10, "name": "Sweden", "code": "SWE"}, {"id": 7, "name": "Switzerland", "code": "CHE"}, {"id": 77, "name": "Syria", "code": "SYR"}, {"id": 76, "name": "Tajikistan", "code": "TJK"}, {"id": 64, "name": "Tanzania", "code": "TZA"}, {"id": 75, "name": "Thailand", "code": "THA"}, {"id": 74, "name": "Togo", "code": "TGO"}, {"id": 71, "name": "Tunisia", "code": "TUN"}, {"id": 70, "name": "Turkey", "code": "TUR"}, {"id": 68, "name": "Uganda", "code": "UGA"}, {"id": 67, "name": "Ukraine", "code": "UKR"}, {"id": 72, "name": "United Arab Emirates", "code": "ARE"}, {"id": 1, "name": "United Kingdom", "code": "GBR"}, {"id": 13, "name": "United States", "code": "USA"}, {"id": 63, "name": "Uruguay", "code": "URY"}, {"id": 62, "name": "Uzbekistan", "code": "UZB"}, {"id": 238, "name": "Venezuela", "code": "VEN"}, {"id": 84, "name": "Vietnam", "code": "VNM"}, {"id": 61, "name": "Yemen", "code": "YEM"}, {"id": 60, "name": "Zambia", "code": "ZMB"}, {"id": 80, "name": "Zimbabwe", "code": "ZWE"}]}}, "descriptionShort": "Median estimates of the true number of COVID-19 infections LSHTM model.", "type": "float", "dataChecksum": "6747190379407847554", "metadataChecksum": "-4293185248567395116", "datasetName": "COVID-19, infection model estimates", "updatePeriodDays": 365, "datasetVersion": "latest", "nonRedistributable": false, "display": {"name": "Median estimate", "unit": "estimated infections", "zeroDay": "2019-12-26", "timeInterval": "day", "numDecimalPlaces": 3}, "schemaVersion": 2, "presentation": {"titlePublic": "Daily new estimated COVID-19 infections (LSHTM, Median estimate)", "topicTagsLinks": ["COVID-19"]}, "descriptionKey": "- LSHTM uses a delay-adjusted CFR comparison to estimate how many symptomatic infections go undetected, then adds an assumed 10-70% asymptomatic share to estimate total infections.\n- A baseline CFR of 1.4% - derived from early data in China - underpins the model, potentially leading to overestimation or underestimation of infections in populations with different age structures.\n- By assuming confirmed deaths reflect true deaths, the model may underestimate the actual health burden in places where fatalities are underreported or reported with delays.\n- Retroactive revisions in death data can introduce discrepancies, affecting the model's calculations of under-ascertainment rates.\n- While it highlights under-detection of infections, the model's accuracy depends heavily on its baseline CFR assumptions and the completeness of reported deaths data.\n- More assumptions and limitations are discussed in [the full report](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/UnderReporting.pdf).", "origins": [{"id": 1339, "title": "Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting", "description": "Estimate the percentage of symptomatic COVID-19 cases reported in different countries using case fatality ratio estimates based on data from the ECDC, correcting for delays between confirmation-and-death.", "producer": "London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine", "citationFull": "Russell, T. W., Hellewell, J., Abbott, S., Golding, N., Gibbs, H., Jarvis, C. I., van Zandvoort, K., CMMID COVID-19 working group, Flasche, S., Eggo, R. M., Edmunds, W. J., & Kucharski, A. J. (2020). Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting. BMC Medicine. Retrieved from https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html.", "attributionShort": "LSHTM", "urlMain": "https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html", "dateAccessed": "2020-08-27", "datePublished": "2020", "license": {"name": "CC BY 4.0"}}]}